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miércoles, septiembre 23, 2009

Malpractice reform is a good idea

Categoría: Noticias y política

As the Unites States works on updating its medical system to be more in line with the rest of the developed industrialized nations, one issue that comes up is malpractice reform.  This is one that is popular with conservatives; in the conservative worldview, people who do malpractice (or other "frivolous") lawsuits are people trying to get something for nothing, living under an "entitlement mentality".

But, will malpractice reform really improve the state of US health care?  Yes, but only by a couple of percentage points:

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/23/business/economy/23leonhardt.html?_r=1&hp

It's an interesting article about malpractice and health care reform.

09:41

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sábado, septiembre 19, 2009

Another take on the metro numbers and last week's rally

Categoría: Noticias y política

Here's a conservative take on the metro numbers (I did my own independent analysis of the numbers right here on this blog earlier this week) and last Saturday's attendance:

http://blog.heritage.org/2009/09/15/metro-delivers-hundreds-of-thousands-to-912-rally/

This is cherry picking; I looked at the same numbers they did and came up with 80,000; they came up with 313,000.  Did we even look at the same numbers?

Indeed, another blog looked at the same numbers and said 40,000.

So how did the conservatives come up with such large numbers?

For unknown reasons, the first Saturday in 2008 had lower attendance.  The number was so low compared to other Saturdays in 2008 and 2009 I just discarded it.  The conservatives used this number, with "it was the first Saturday after labor day" as their justification.  I have done some more research about Saturday after labor day numbers and get this:

Year

Date

Ridership

2009

September 12

437,634

2008

September 6

202,528

2007

September 8

310,703

2006

September 9

302,374

2005

September 10

330,385

As we can clearly see, 2008's numbers for ridership is low for other reasons than it being the first Saturday after labor day.

If we ignore 2008's numbers and only look at the average of 2007, 2006, and 2005 in comparison to 2009 numbers, we get 123,147 additional riders.  If we use the same methodology as the Heritage foundation: We assume every additional user of the metro went there for the rally, and 25% of the attendees went via other means, we get 163,786 people at the rally.

I still say that's really high.  I say a lower percentage didn't take the metro, and I say the black family day we had at the same place on the same day skews the numbers.  I also say the recession increases ridership, since it results in fewer people taking cars and taking the metro instead.

I stand by the 80,000 number I gave when I looked at these numbers earlier this week.  The radical right appear to be deliberately massaging the numbers to make the attendance look as high as possible, which is downright dishonest.

I have talked to a conservative-to-moderate friend about my blog a couple of days ago (oh, the wonders of Skype), and he pointed out that I can't really look at the radical right that tries to inflate last week's attendance figures, denys global warning, thinks Obama wasn't born in the USA, and otherwise believes BS, and paint all Republicans with the same stroke.  Indeed, Jerry Pournelle, a conservative science fiction writer, hasn't said anything about Saturday's attendance figures.

08:46

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viernes, septiembre 18, 2009

What I want in my president

Categoría: Noticias y política

The most important thing I want to see my president make happen is to make the economy better.  Everything else is secondary.

What I want is what Clinton made happen in the 1990s and what Regan made happen in the 1980s: I want it so that any hard-working person who goes on to the street and looks for a job can find a job and earn a living wage.  A living wage is just that: A job that pays well enough that one can think about starting a family.

America has been losing this.  Everyone I knew who worked in the tech industry in the 1990s isn't working today, with the exception of middle management and one 1990s friend who is not earning a living wage working with computers (he doesn't earn enough to pay his rent; thankfully, his wife also has a job).

When Clinton left office, I was earning a handsome living wage working in the tech industry.  Today, I have a nice relaxing job but I am not earning a living wage.  Yeah, I earn enough to support myself, but you know, I don't earn enough to settle down and start a family.

I just heard on CNN that California, my home, has record high unemployment at 12%; I would bet it's 25% or higher in the tech industry--depression-level unemployment.

I hate to say it, but just as Carter screwed up the economy in the 1970s, Bush screwed up the economy in the 2000s.  While Obama is more liberal than Clinton, I believe his actions are helping kick-start the economy so anyone willing to work hard can have a living wage, instead of the depression-type conditions Silicon Valley is in right now.

In the meantime, I thank God I have a job today; it's not much, but it's more than what most of my friends who worked in the tech industry in the 1990s have today.

09:14

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miércoles, septiembre 16, 2009

9/12 crowd size estimation based on DC metro use

Categoría: Noticias y política

Here is a blog estimating about 40,000 people at 9/12's rally based on DC metro use:

http://open.salon.com/blog/the_notorious_dad/2009/09/15/the_real_numbers_about_the_dc_9-12_rally

I personally think he's low-balling the estimates; using the same methodology, we would get about 600,000 for the inauguration.  So, let me look at these numbers (source) and play with them:

Date

Metro + Bus

Sep 12 (rally)

673,971

Sep 5 (1 week before rally)

537,610

Aug 29 (2 weeks before)

540,344

Aug 22 (3 weeks before)

529,547

Jan 20 (Inauguration)

1,543,000

Sep 13 2008 (Sat. 1 year ago)

599,120

Sep 6 2008 (1 year 1 week)

438,875

Sep 20 2008

596,918

Aug 30 2008

572,292

Aug 23 2008

555,131

September 6 2008 looks to be a fluke so I will ignore this number.  The average of the numbers on non-rally days in August and September is 561,566.  There were 112,405 more rides on the Metro on the day of the rally compared to this average, and 74,821 more people on the Metro than there were on Sep 13 2008.

One January 20 2009 (The Inauguration), there were 400,819 more people riding the metro than there were on the same day a year before (source).

Taking the increased ridership of the inauguration, dividing the number by two, and saying that was the attendance will give us an inauguration attendance of 200,000--off by a significant factor.  Then again, looking at January 2008 Metro numbers, there were some popular sports events, so we would have to subtract the number of people attending the sporting events in 2008 before getting the inauguration attendance.

Still, "divide by two to get the crowd" doesn't look right; no one is saying only 600,000 people went to the inauguration.  1.2 million plus 500,000 who got there by other means looks more reasonable.

Assuming 95,000 more went to DC via the metro last Saturday, 20,000 got to the rally via other means, and 35,000 people were at the black family reunion, we get an attendance of 80,000.  Which is consistent with the crowd estimates reported by people who are experts at measuring crowd sizes.

09:25

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martes, septiembre 15, 2009

Yet another blog post on the 9/12 crowd size

Categoría: Noticias y política

Here is yet another blog post on the crowd size.  In the comments, there is a link to this photo of the crowd at the 9/12 rally and another side by side comparison of the crowd at the 9/12 rally (70,000 people) compared to the inauguration (Nearly 2 million people).

To be fair, in reply to the third picture, some of the liberal posters pointed out that an eye-level photo of a crowd can show less people at an event than the inauguration's semi-aerial photo.

I believe very strongly that inaccurate or downright false theories are unproductive for public debate.  If you have an issue with health care reform, for example, you look very foolish claiming a 70,000 sized crowd is really a 2,000,000 sized crowd, or claiming Obama is somehow a Nazi (without making any argument about why there would be a connection) for supporting health care reform.

Finally, while he hardly ever posts to his blog, John Ringo is a conservative writer who I greatly respect.  I wish more conservative bloggers could articulate there ideas as well as Ringo does.

07:45

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lunes, septiembre 14, 2009

Some more on the crowd size

Categoría: Noticias y política

Some blog postings about crowd size estimates for the conservative rally last Saturday in DC:

One liberal blog showing a picture of Saturday's crowd (70,000 people) besides a pictures of the crowd at Obama's inauguration (Well over 1,000,000 people)

Another liberal blog with the account of someone who was there in DC and saw only tens of thousands of people. Also, a picture of what a million-person crowd in DC looks like.

A typical example of conservatives ignoring facts and insisting there were 1,930,000 invisible people at the rally (The "under the trees" line is classic denial)

Another conservative blog which gives me hope for conservatives. Maybe there's a chance that conservative bloggers will stop trying to lie, relent, and admit there weren't even 100,000 people at Saturday's rally. But I'm not holding my breath

This is the problem with conservatives: Just as I can not have a reasonable debate with a pathological liar until they admit they have been lying, I can not have a reasonable debate with a conservative until they stop lying and start debating based on objective fact and on truth.

10:01

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domingo, septiembre 13, 2009

Republicans can't count

Categoría: Noticias y política

There were 75,000 to 80,000 people at Saturday's protest, not 1.5 million to 2 million people the way Republicans claim.

Republicans need to get their facts straight before they will be taken seriously as a party again.

Fact: When Clinton (a Democrat, lest Republicans forget) left office in early 2001, America was at the peak of one of its greatest economic prosperities.

Fact: When Bush (a Republican, again lest Republicans forget) left office in early 2009, America was (and still is) in its worse recession since the great depression of the 1930s.

Fact: Republicans can't get basic facts right.  No wonder the party is becoming more and more irrelevant every day, with the party being defined by the actions of a small, outspoken minority of loudmouth idiots.

This kind of idiocy makes me feel like maybe Heinlein had it right: We need to have people pass an test demonstrating basic intelligence (solving a quadratic formula was his suggestion) before being allowed to vote.

Update:
In comparison, there were 400,000 people protesting in LA alone at the "A Day Without Immigrants" protests three years ago; to make that an apples to apples comparison, the same source (BBC) says there were "Tens of thousands" of people at Saturday's march. Like I said, a small but very noisy crowd.

Second update:
This ABC news article discusses how this crowd size rumor was started.

Final update:
Here's a left-wing blog comparing the crowd size of this rally with other famous DC rallies. Martin Luther King's famous "I have a Dream" speech drew three times as many people, for example. Finally, for armchair pundits who think they can estimate crowds better than the DC fire department, this is what a million people looks like (Obama's inauguration) and this is what 70,000 people looks like (Yesterday's right-wing protest).

10:44

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viernes, septiembre 04, 2009

Cool blog

Categoría: Creación de blogs

I found a well-written blog that is enjoyable to read at the following URL:

http://dailyrevolution.net/

Enjoy!

11:16

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miércoles, agosto 26, 2009

Conservatives need to stop spouting nonsense

Categoría: Noticias y política

Conservatives need to stop spouting nonsense fringe theories.

I'm talking about nonsense like the Birther nonsense or global warming denial. This isn't just something a few people on the fringe believe (Democrats have a fringe that believe the 9/11 attacks were faked, just as Republicans have their fringe that deny the holocaust). These fringe theories are something prominent republicans believe in.

Oklahoma Republican state Representative Mike Ritze appears to be a
birther (trying to pass pro-Birther legislation), as are four Republican
state Representatives--Stacey Campfield, Glen Casada, Frank S. Niceley
and Eric H. Swafford--in Tennessee, as well as Fifteen Republican
members of the Missouri House of Representatives.

Republican strategist Frank Luntz has denied global warming, as well as
Philip Cooney, who was hired by Bush to become chief of staff for the
White House (Not mentioned in the Wikipedia Global Warning denial article but
also notable is Republican senator Jim Inhofe)

I can't think of a prominent Democrat who espouses this kind of
nonsense, but a fairly quick and simple search found a number of
Republicans spouting this stuff.

For me to respect conservatives, conservatives need to stop
this nonsense. There are a number of conservative causes I believe in,
such as law and order and tort reform, but I can't support a party who
openly supports fringe theories.

10:04

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sábado, agosto 08, 2009

Strange dream

I had a dream last night that Skype changed things so that, in order to me to continue using my Skype account, I had to pay then $60 a month or I would no longer be able to use my Skype account.  I ended up looking for another VOIP provider, but it was hard letting all my friends know I had to move.

Strange dream.

01:39

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